Professor Joe Nellis is economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm.
The Eurozone economy recorded small but positive growth of 0.2% in GDP during the third quarter of 2025, a slight improvement on the 0.1% expansion seen in the second quarter. On an annual basis, output grew by 1.3% signalling that while momentum remains weak, the economy of the Eurozone continues to edge forward rather than slip into contraction.
After a series of interest rate cuts over the past two years, the ECB now appears to be entering a period of consolidation — potentially marking the end of the recent easing cycle. This signals a shift from active intervention to a “wait and watch” stance, as policymakers assess whether inflation will continue to cool and growth will stabilise or weaken further.
But a consistent interest rate has its benefits. For consumers and businesses, stable interest rates help preserve credit conditions and support investment in an otherwise slow economy. A more certain environment should increase business confidence, encouraging European companies to be more ambitious in their growth plans. Households may also benefit from steadier borrowing costs, though the broader impact will depend on how quickly economic momentum picks up.
"A cut in interest rates could be considered next year if inflation continues to cool and growth weakens further, but the ECB is currently favouring stability — preferring to hold steady and assess the balance between falling inflation and faltering growth, creating a more certain economic environment for corporates and consumers to navigate."
