Sustainable economic growth remains elusive as UK GDP falls by 0.1% in October
Professor Joe Nellis December 12th 2025
Professor Joe Nellis is economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm.
UK GDP declined marginally by 0.1% in October, reflecting an economy that is stable but still unable to build meaningful forwards momentum. The UK is neither sliding into a clear downturn nor generating the lift needed to move into a firmer, sustainable expansion phase.
Across the main sectors, October’s picture is uneven. Manufacturing and construction continue to feel the weight of higher borrowing costs and muted global demand, while improvements in consumer-facing services remain hesitant despite easing inflation.
The economy’s performance in the final quarter will depend heavily on how households respond to improving real incomes and whether businesses decide conditions are stable enough to revive investment spending plans that were put on hold earlier in the year.
Looking beyond the immediate period, the figures reinforce the challenges heading into 2026. A more constructive year is still possible — particularly if interest rates fall further and inflation continues to normalise — but today’s data underline that a return to stronger growth will not happen automatically.
Sustained progress will depend on a clearer pick-up in investment, better productivity performance and a policy environment that encourages long-term decision-making.
"October’s decline in GDP acts as a reminder: the recovery is delicate, easily knocked off course, and still waiting for the catalyst that can turn stability into genuine momentum."
