Weekly Market Update: 4 July 2025

Andrea Wood · Posted on: July 4th 2025 · read

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After a year of declines, UK shop price inflation ticked up to 0.4% year-on-year in June, pushed higher by a rise in annual rate of food inflation to 3.7%, the highest since March last year. The increase was driven by higher costs for meat and fresh fruit and vegetables, reflecting ongoing supply chain pressures and seasonal demand shifts. Retailers are bracing for further volatility as global trade tensions and domestic policy changes continue to influence pricing. The British Retail Consortium noted particular pressure on the fresh food sector, with categories like poultry and produce seeing double-digit increases in wholesale costs.

3.7%

After a year of declines, UK shop price inflation ticked up to 0.4% year-on-year in June, pushed higher by a rise in annual rate of food inflation to 3.7%, the highest since March last year.

The UK housing market received a boost in May, with an increase in net mortgage approvals of 2,400 to 63,000, according to the Bank of England. This uptick follows a period of rate easing, which has made borrowing more attractive for homebuyers. Lenders have responded by offering more competitive deals, and early indicators suggest a modest rebound in property transactions. However, economists warn that inflationary pressures and regulatory changes could temper this momentum in the months ahead.

63,000

The UK housing market received a boost in May, with an increase in net mortgage approvals of 2,400 to 63,000, according to the Bank of England.

In corporate news, Santander has agreed to acquire TSB from Banco Sabadell in a £2.65 billion deal, beating rival Barclays which also submitted a formal bid. The takeover will add five million customers, though concerns persist over potential branch closures and reduced competition. Meanwhile, shares in Greggs fell sharply on Wednesday after the UK bakery chain issued a profit warning, as June’s record-breaking heatwave led to lower footfall and lower sales of hot food items like sausage rolls and pasties. Despite a 2.6% rise in like-for-like sales in the first half of the year, the bakery chain expects full-year operating profit to fall modestly below 2024 levels.

Our specialist's final thought

"Santander has agreed to acquire TSB from Banco Sabadell in a £2.65 billion deal, beating rival Barclays which also submitted a formal bid. The takeover will add five million customers, though concerns persist over potential branch closures and reduced competition."

Andrea Wood - Associate, Investment Manager

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