2026 MHA Global Transaction Report
A review of global transaction activity, trends and forecasts from our corporate finance specialists from across the Baker Tilly International network.
Andrew Feeke, Head of Corporate Finance, MHA 🇬🇧
The global M&A (merger and acquisition) sector has continued to navigate challenging conditions this year.
Persistent geopolitical headwinds and uneven economic conditions led to a muted start to 2025 for deal-making. A gradually improving environment however, has helped restore confidence.
Global transaction values remain behind the highs of 2021, but it seems likely that 2025 will equal or improve on 2024 - itself a ‘rebound’ year. Renewed momentum is emerging, with evidence of strategic consolidation and improving access to capital. As ever, the outlook varies significantly by geography, underlining the importance of a regional perspective.
This report draws on insights from Baker Tilly International’s Global Corporate Finance network to provide an up-to-date view of mid-market deal activity and the factors shaping it. Together, these observations help illuminate the trends influencing M&A in 2025 and the opportunities that lie ahead for the mid-market in 2026 and beyond.
Executive overview
- Market sentiment is improving despite ongoing geopolitical volatility. The global M&A environment is showing renewed confidence with activity expected to match or surpass 2024 levels.
- M&A resilience continues as dealmakers adapt to uncertainty. Despite tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and tariff disruptions, strategic buyers and private equity are still pursuing deals.
- Domestic M&A is set for moderate growth across most markets. Consolidation and improved economic outlooks are supporting a steady rise in domestic transactions.
- AI, software and digital infrastructure are attracting the most attention globally.
Global M&A Activity
Cautious optimism and resilient market participants
A mood of cautious optimism prevails across the global M&A market, with many commentators as well as our own global experts reporting increased activity, even in the face of ongoing geopolitical turbulence.
According to a report by The Boston Consulting Group, M&A activity rose by 10% in the first nine months of 2025, compared to the same period the previous year, with deal values standing at $1.9 trillion compared to $1.76 trillion for the same period in 2024.
Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have undoubtedly brought lingering uncertainty. Disruption from the introduction of tariffs for the US market and the sometimes protracted negotiations that resulted along with fluctuating stock market valuations, caused some dealmakers to pause.
The M&A market, however, has seemingly grown used to turbulence and is proving resilient. A significant tranche of dealmakers have pressed ahead with strategic transactions. Deals are being finalised and private equity and family offices have shown they are ready to engage. International bidders are also proving to be highly motivated to outbid local players who might be hindered by regulatory or economic impacts.
The international nature of M&A means local knowledge and country-by-country insights are highly prized, and a diverse picture emerges from our global experts in our 2026 MHA Global Transaction Report.
Our global specialists' predictions
"Cross-border deals are mainly driven by investors from within Europe, especially Central Europe. As such, so far they don't seem to have been affected by the geopolitical turmoil."
"With the geopolitical situation, we expect more cross-border deals that are strategic, and domestically strategic M&A will improve, with consolidation and issues around succession for traditional SME businesses. For cross-border deals, while there is some uncertainty, due to Trump’s tariffs, everyone believes this will be temporary. Generally, the cross-border situation is improving, with people looking at India from a China-plus-one perspective."
"Macro-environmental factors such as geopolitics and fluctuating interest rates continue to affect the business environment, increasing the level of uncertainty and, with that, the gap between buyers and sellers."
"The outlook for increased M&A in the US is cautiously optimistic. Cross-border deals are more difficult than domestic deals and economic, interest rate and geopolitical factors add more complexity."
Domestic M&A activity: expectations of moderate growth
Consistently, our experts anticipate investment in their local M&A markets to increase moderately in the next 12 months. Drivers include opportunity to consolidate, increased optimism around economic conditions and evidence of increasing numbers of owners looking to exit.
Investors appear more active, with greater fire power among M&A firms in some territories, more active family offices and growing numbers of PE firms. Markets seem to have come to terms with volatility and previously hesitant vendors are readying themselves to bring their companies to market.
Our global specialists' predictions
"We expect deal volumes to continue to pick up, relative to a more cautious early 2025 – whilst key drivers of value remain high growth sectors, there is a theme of a much broader positive outlook for M&A across multiple sectors. With PE looking to invest in mid-market transactions as a key driver of returns and with an abundance of 'dry powder' to deploy the fundamentals of an active M&A market appear to be there."
"There’s currently some uncertainty in the market, and it sometimes takes a little longer for projects to be finalised. Many potential clients are experiencing setbacks with their earnings for the current year, 2025. However, expectations for the 2026 and beyond are not negative."
"India is witnessing a good economic recovery, and we expect consolidation. When valuations start improving (and not become very expensive), we will witness a better deal-making environment."
"We expect a surge in middle-market M&A activity in 2026 as buyers pivot away from mega-deals toward smaller, strategically-aligned transactions that offer faster execution and lower regulatory risk. This trend is fuelled by abundant private equity dry powder and improving financing conditions, making mid-sized businesses highly attractive targets."
"A key demographic driver is the wave of baby boomer-owned companies coming to market as founders seek succession solutions and liquidity events. This generational transition is creating a robust pipeline of well-established businesses with strong cash flows, presenting compelling opportunities for acquirers focused on operational value creation and long-term growth."
Mike McIsaac, National Managing Director, Baker Tilly Canada 🇨🇦
Predicted level of investment for domestic M&A activity over the next 12 months
Cross-border or domestic deals?
Domestic markets undoubtedly provide opportunities for entities seeking growth or consolidation through a transaction. Where buyers are looking at cross-border opportunities, they often look at close neighbours.
Given the continued level of uncertainty, we see several of our buyside clients, PEs in particular, looking for add-ons in neighbouring markets as they are seen to be less risky.”
Gert Mortensen, Head of Corporate Finance, Baker Tilly Denmark 🇩🇰
Nicolas-Pierre Baumé, Partner, Blue Partners Finance, says French buyers and sellers mostly look at European counterparts, since they feel more comfortable with similar cultures and market rules.
Others are looking for opportunity farther afield.
"In 2026, cross-border M&A activity is expected to concentrate on Europe, Asia-Pacific, and select emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and parts of Africa. Europe is regaining momentum thanks to regulatory clarity, stabilised interest rates, and abundant private equity dry powder, making mid-market transactions particularly attractive."
"Asia-Pacific, led by India and Southeast Asia, is drawing investors seeking high-growth opportunities in technology, renewable energy, and consumer sectors. Meanwhile, Latin America, especially Brazil, is benefiting from reforms and strong demand in fintech and energy transition projects. Africa is emerging as a niche focus due to its expanding middle class and infrastructure needs, though deals there require careful navigation of regulatory and political risks. These regions offer strategic diversification, access to talent, and sector-specific growth drivers, which outweigh geopolitical headwinds for well-prepared acquirers."
Mike McIsaac, National Managing Director, Baker Tilly Canada 🇨🇦
Drivers and Valuations
Key buyside drivers of M&A activity
Access to new customers and markets leads the way in terms of significant buyside drivers of M&A activity as companies seek to widen and increase their reach. The acquisition of new technology or intellectual property is also a significant motivating factor for businesses. The search for growth by acquiring new talent along with low growth in the home market also has significant pull.
Other secondary factors that impact geographical areas of focus include relative tax rates, the wider regulatory environment, skilled labour and funding availability."
Andrew Feeke, Head of Corporate Finance, MHA 🇬🇧
Dealmaking also remains an attractive alternative to trading through the friction of weathering persistently difficult trading conditions. Businesses look to M&A as a response to the downward pressure of tariffs and other barriers to trade, for instance.
"Cross border transactions are mainly driven by lack of growth in the domestic market."
"Tariffs and geopolitical trends are driving new thoughts about relocation and foreign investments, such as Chinese car producers building production plants in Europe, or acquiring plants from OEMs."
Significant buyside drivers of M&A activity expected over the next 12 months
The role of ESG as a buyside driver
ESG can play a role in M&A as a lens through which to identify and mitigate risks, or a means to assess the strategic or financial value of an entity. However, as a buyside driver, its level of influence fluctuates according to market conditions and sentiment, most prominently, the Trump administration’s reversal on ESG-directed policies and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
There are signs that strong ESG credentials can make a difference to valuations and debt pricing.
A clear and transparent ESG policy and strong ESG credentials remain a ‘hygiene’ factor rather than a direct driver of value in many circumstances. We are also seeing acquirers and/or businesses with strong ESG credentials able to access a wider variety of funding lines and on more favorable terms."
Andrew Feeke, Head of Corporate Finance, MHA 🇬🇧
Valuations and funding outlook
Valuations remain central to M&A activity, since reaching agreement on pricing is often cited as the biggest challenge acquirers face in closing deals, far outstripping other barriers such as regulatory hurdles, acquiring finance and finding a suitable acquirer (although all those factors were mentioned as relevant by our experts albeit to a lessor extent).
In those markets that saw a moderate decline in valuations Gert Michael Mortensen in Denmark, suggested deal dynamics were at play. Depending on industry, sellers might agree to lower prices to close the ‘expectation gap’.
Moritz Döbbeling in Switzerland, cited higher interest rates and volatility as factors. Lorijn van Leersum in the Netherlands saw a similar pattern:
There is more uncertainty and the interim figures often fall short of budget, which leads to price pressure on transactions."
Lorijn van Leersum, Partner, Baker Tilly Netherlands 🇳🇱
Where advisors are seeing moderate increases in valuations, this is attributed to better economic conditions such as rising stock market performance, stabilisation of inflation and greater post-pandemic stability.
"My sense is that valuations have been relatively stable and perhaps moderately increasing for high quality targets that remain in demand by multiple buyer groups. The quality of the underlying business has never been more important in driving value both at the outset and through a transaction process."
There are some sector-specific observations too.
Valuations in the tech space have increased. Valuations have also increased for assets that are unique and attract private equity and strategic buyers."
Adrian Cheow, Executive Director, Baker Tilly Singapore 🇸🇬
Research from Mark to Market suggests stable multiples for mid-market valuations for the first half of 2025, albeit slightly behind levels for the first half of 2024. Healthcare, telecoms media and technology, and financial services began to trend upwards in terms of valuation, according to Mark to Market.
Factors believed to have impacted valuation trends
Economic cycles
Change in deal activity
Interest rates
Inflation
Geopolitical
ESG
How valuation trends have shifted in the past 12 months
Key sectors in 2026
In spite of a challenging start to the year, more than half of industry sectors globally saw double digit growth in deal volumes during the first half of 2025, according to a study by JP Morgan, with M&A showing resilience in the face of policy uncertainty and uncertain market conditions. Technology, diversified industrials, financial institutions and media communications all reported strong growth.
Our specialists once again provided regional insights. Sectors attracting the most interest and higher valuations varied from one territory to another: from healthcare and AI in India and the US; to Agro-industry and accounting in France; and proven sectors like banking and financial services in UAE.
Technology and especially AI were common to many territories, demonstrating the desire to acquire digital capabilities and drive transformation. Of the emerging sectors gaining traction, artificial intelligence and green energy were cited, although there is an expectation that valuations in these areas may potentially be inflated.
"Industries and companies aligned with long-term growth, innovation and seen to be resilient during difficult economic and geopolitical climate. Technology, including AI, seems to be leading the race which everyone looking to solutions for cybersecurity concerns, data infrastructure, digital transformation and automation capabilities."
"Healthcare and life sciences remain highly attractive, particularly in biotech, telehealth, and scalable platform models, as aging demographic continues and cost pressures fuel consolidation. Financial services and fintech are seeing strong demand due to digital disruption and the need for advanced payment and investment technologies. Renewable energy and energy transition sectors, including electricity, solar, wind, and storage, are commanding premium valuations as sustainability imperatives accelerate. Oil and gas remains strong with North American demand driven by the US. Additionally, business and professional services with asset-light, recurring revenue models are attractive, while industrial technology and infrastructure tied to AI-driven growth are emerging as strategic hotspots."
Mike McIsaac, National Managing Director, Baker Tilly Canada 🇨🇦
"Foreign investors seem to see good entry opportunities in very specific industries such as automation technology, where Germany continues to be a technological leader."
Sectors driving the most activity in our specialists’ markets
Role of AI and technology
Time and again, artificial intelligence comes up in conversations around M&A, whether impacting due diligence and other deal-making processes or in the form of attractive target acquisitions.
AI is clearly a major catalyst and transformational force. It is becoming a commonplace that companies capable of embedding and scaling AI will have significant competitive advantage.
However, commentators suggest that companies are still in the early stages of leveraging the potential of AI. A report from McKinsey, for instance, suggests that in spite of widespread adoption by mid-market companies across more than one business function, a return on investment has yet to feed through to the bottom line.
So what of AI in deal making itself? Nitin Arora, says AI use is at a nascent stage, but is being used more prominently for research and pitch-book-making, and Gert Michael Mortensen says agentic AI is supporting searches and being deployed to conduct basic financial analysis. Moritz Döbbeling says that AI does support due diligence, but has not seen effective use in sourcing deals.
"Innovation that can bring efficiency is shaping M&A strategy in our market. AI is gaining traction, however expectations of valuations are still quite high."
"For prospecting new orders, valuations and due diligence.You can research the financial structures of similar companies and their performance, shortening response times and gaining a better perspective on the company’s financial situation."
Future trends
The possibility of a private equity rebound for 2026 and beyond is much anticipated as a source of additional capital, and potentially increasing competition for high quality, mid-market targets. Bain and Company’s Private Equity Outlook report suggest that sentiment amid Private Equity sources is optimistic about deal volumes.
"While we can still expect a degree of geopolitical unrest and uncertainty, hopefully this won’t be at the level of the last 12 months. Assuming a more stable macro-economic environment, this should encourage deal activity."
"There is reasonable appetite from private equity for new to portfolio deals vs bolt on acquisitions but it depends on the size of the deal."
Our specialists sense that private equity buyers have until now been waiting on the sidelines, but are ready to deploy unspent capital. Michael L Milani, Baker Tilly US agrees a private equity rebound and exit wave will be a significant factor in near term. “Private equity is ready to go,” he says.
The return of strategic buyers for 2026 and further ahead is also much anticipated.
Goldman Sachs¹ reported corporates making up around 71% of activity in 2025 to date and is positioned as a driver of deal value growth in 2025.
Nitin Arora, Baker Tilly India, expects to see more strategic cross-border M&A transactions, with domestic strategic M&A improving with consolidation and issues around success for mid-caps.
Nicolas-Pierre Baumé, Partner, Blue Partners Finance also anticipates a revival in cross-border deals, and to the benefit of deal valuations for the right targets.
International bidders are motivated to pay a premium on business with a minimum size (upwards of 20 million euros) versus local bidders impacted by slow-growing domestic market and tax increases."
Nicolas-Pierre Baumé, Partner, Blue Partners Finance 🇫🇷
Anticipated geopolitical or regulatory changes are also expected to show continued impact.
Geopolitical shifts will continue to impact dealmaking, prolonging the risk assessment and the decision making and increasing the transaction risk."
Gert Mortensen, Head of Corporate Finance, Baker Tilly Denmark 🇩🇰
Mike McIsaac, Baker Tilly Canada, agrees that geopolitical tensions will continue to play out in the deal market.
"I expect geopolitical and regulatory shifts to continue to have a profound impact on deals in the coming years. The US will continue to prioritise domestic markets and disrupt supply chains. It is difficult to see less geopolitical tension around the world, which should create opportunities for those that are prepared and challenges for those not. The successful dealmakers will incorporate AI technology into their risk and deal assessment, and be proactive with their strategies in navigating risk."
Trends our specialists expect to see dominate the M&A landscape in 2026 and 2027
Final thoughts
With their vast combined experience, our specialists’ advice for would-be sellers is that:
- Preparation, collaboration and networking are all key to establishing the fundamentals for a transaction.
- Financials should be clean with minimal adjusted items.
- Sellers should do a thorough exit-readiness evaluation, testing the water with a pre-sale process. Being prepared for longer transaction processes is also advisable.
- Buyers are advised to look for the substance of the deal, rather than mere future potential.
- Other than that, and with a nod to the idea that uncertainty may be here to stay, dealmakers should be prepared to go for it.
Concluding thoughts
"Speak to your advisors early, a successful outcome is about proper preparation and an advisor that truly knows your business and sector you operate in."
Report contributors
Nitin Arora
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Nicolas-Pierre Baumé
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Adrian Cheow
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Moritz Döbbeling
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Andrew Feeke
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Dr. Andreas Fröhlich
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Stela Ivancheva
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Lorijn van Leersum
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Andrés Magna
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Saad Maniar
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Mike McIsaac
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Xavier Mercadé
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Michael L. Milani
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Gert Mortensen
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Brendan Murphy
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